How Emerging Economies and Shifting Alliances Are Changing the Global Political Landscape: Is the West Being Left Behind?

The Traditional Appeal of the West

For decades, the West has anchored global prosperity, security, development, and innovation. The United States, in particular, has been the largest trading partner for many of its allies and has maintained the status of the world’s reserve currency. The Cold War era established a global order regulated by Euro-Atlantic institutions such as NATO, the G7, the European Union, the World Bank, and the United Nations. This order, centred on the shared values of democratic governance and economic development, shaped international relations for over 70 years.

However, this architecture has shown signs of strain. The trade-offs made by Western countries—emphasizing social issues over economic development and imposing stringent conditions on development assistance—have been increasingly questioned by developing economies. These conditions were often perceived as double standards, leading to growing dissatisfaction.

The Shift to Eurasia

Economic power is shifting towards Eurasia, encompassing regions from the Gulf states in West Asia to Central, South, and East Asia. For the first time, China has emerged as the largest trading partner for both the US and the EU, challenging the notion that democratic and authoritarian states cannot maintain separate spheres of influence. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is projected to be the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2024 with a growth rate of 6.8%, while China is expected to grow by 4.6%. Asia is predicted to contribute roughly 60% of global GDP growth, primarily driven by China and India.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite its controversies, has seen participation from 155 countries, representing 75% of the global population and over 50% of its GDP. The BRI’s success in delivering infrastructure results contrasts sharply with the Euro-Atlantic model, highlighting a significant shift in global development strategies.

Technological and Military Dynamics

While the West still leads in technology, China’s rapid advancements are notable. Between 2011 and 2020, China accounted for 47% of the world’s patents in artificial intelligence, installed 50% of the world’s robots, and captured 70% of the global drone market. Despite the US’s preeminent military capabilities, inconsistent political decisions have made it a less reliable partner for some countries.

Decline of the Western Liberal Democratic Order

The Western liberal democratic order is facing internal and external challenges. Internal crises in the US, political polarization, and the rise of strong-state models in other regions are undermining the traditional appeal of liberal democracy. Countries like Rwanda and the Gulf monarchies are increasingly seen as viable alternatives.

The Euro-Atlantic alliance is now in direct competition with the BRICS nations, which represent 30% of global GDP, 46% of the world’s population, 43% of oil production, and 25% of global exports. Eurasian groupings like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Economic Cooperation Organization further illustrate the shift towards multipolar global governance.

Geopolitical Realignments

Geopolitical realignments are becoming more apparent. Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, South Africa, and Turkey are playing key roles in managing global issues like climate change, food insecurity, and digital governance. These nations are reluctant to align strictly with either the US or China, emphasizing flexible, interest-driven foreign policies.

Saudi Arabia, for example, seeks security engagement from both the US and China. Turkey, a NATO member, has purchased weapons from Russia, shared drones with the UK, and attended summits with Russia and Iran. These countries command significant capital, demographic advantages, and strategic territories, enhancing their influence within the Global South.

Fragmentation of the World Order

The world order is becoming more fragmented, with institutions struggling to address recent challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. An increasing number of countries are rejecting the West’s concept of international order, striving to create their own paths influenced by China and other emerging powers.

Mid-sized powers no longer feel compelled to align with the US and the West. They are diversifying their strategic partnerships, including closer ties with China and Russia. This strategic diversification is driven by flexible, interest-driven foreign policies and issue-specific cooperation.

The Impact of Recent Geopolitical Events

Recent geopolitical events have accelerated the shift away from Western dominance. The 2003 US-led war in Iraq, the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and the election of Donald Trump have weakened the US’s moral, economic, and geopolitical stature. China has capitalized on these events, altering its foreign policy to move away from US influence.

According to GMF’s Transatlantic Trends 2023, countries like US, Italy, Poland, and France perceive their democracies as being in danger, raising questions about the sustainability of liberal democracy in the West. The reluctance of many countries to support Western-led perspectives, particularly on issues involving Russia, underscores the shift in global alignments.

Conclusion

The global political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as emerging economies and shifting alliances challenge the traditional dominance of the West. The rise of China and India, the influence of the BRICS nations, and the strategic realignments of mid-sized powers are reshaping international relations. As the world navigates these changes, the interconnectedness of national and global dynamics will continue to redefine the balance of power and influence in the international arena. The West must adapt to this new reality, recognizing the importance of emerging economies and the need for more inclusive and flexible global governance.